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11120032 Fellowship: Spatiotemporal Analyses of Potato Late Blight Outbreaks

Publication Date: 
1 September 2017
Author/Contact :
Siobhan Dancey and Pete Skelsey

Contractor :
The James Hutton Institute

Full Title: Fellowship: Spatiotemporal analyses of potato late blight outbreaks in Great Britain
Duration: September 2017 to August 2019


Aim: To gain further understanding of the epidemiology of late blight in GB, and to develop new visual aids to improve decision-making.


The AHDB Potatoes ‘Fight Against Blight’ database contains data from thousands of late blight outbreaks across GB. This project will use statistical and GIS analysis methods to develop visual aids that will support informed decision making in late blight management, and support long-term strategic management of fungicide and resistance resources. The occurrence of late blight genotypes within GB potato crop distributions will be analysed in order to answer the following types of question:

  • When, where, and why do early outbreaks of late blight occur in different parts of GB?
  • What is the risk of spatial spread of late blight among the various postal districts of GB, and what is the rate of spread in different parts of the country?
  • What is the historical risk of late blight in different parts of GB, and how has that risk changed over time?
  • How has the genetic make-up and spatial distribution of the pathogen population in GB changed over time, and what are the drivers of this change?

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